How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Under 4.5 goals 83%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Los Angeles FC host New York Red Bulls at home on 10 September 2026 in an MLS clash that could tighten the top of the table. LAFC sit fourth out of fifteen with 37 points and a +14 goal difference, just three points behind FC Dallas in third and level with St. Louis City in fifth. The Red Bulls are down in 12th place with 27 points and a –14 goal difference, one point behind DC United and four points ahead of Columbus Crew. Both sides have played their last game only four days ago, so fatigue may be a factor. The match offers the leaders a chance to pull away and the strugglers a chance to climb out of the lower half.
LAFC’s recent form has been flat. In their last eight games they have recorded one win, five draws and two defeats. The most recent results are a 2-2 draw away at Salt Lake, two goalless draws away at DC United, a 1-1 draw at home against Portland Timbers, a 1-0 loss away to Colorado Rapids and a 1-0 loss at home to San Diego FC. That string includes four straight draws before the Red Bulls visit. In those eight matches LAFC have scored eight goals and let in six. They kept three clean sheets but failed to find the net in four games. Only two of the games produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in three of those fixtures.
The Red Bulls have been struggling even more. Their last eight outings contain one win, two draws and five defeats. They opened the run with a 0-0 draw away at Seattle Sounders, then suffered two 3-1 losses at home to Philadelphia Union, a 1-1 draw at home to Chicago Fire, a 1-0 loss at home to Nashville SC and a 2-1 defeat away to Atlanta United. That means they have gone six games without a win. In this period they have scored seven goals while conceding 14. They managed only one clean sheet and were shut out in three matches. Five of the eight games featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in five of them.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have been relatively open. In the last four meetings LAFC have won twice, the Red Bulls once and there has been one draw. Those matches have produced an average of 3.8 goals. The most recent encounter was a 2-2 draw on 21 April 2024, a game that saw both sides find the net twice. Given the current scoring expectations of 2.1 goals for LAFC and 0.9 for the Red Bulls, this fixture is likely to stay close to the three-goal mark, with neither side showing the firepower to push the total much higher.
We back the Under 4.5 goals. Our expectation of about three goals in the game means that five or more would be needed for the bet to lose. The price of 1.38 is longer than our own reading, so it looks attractive. The chance of the total staying under 4.5 is high – we put it at 83 out of 100. For the pick to go wrong, the match would have to turn into a goal-fest, with both teams scoring at least three times, something that has not happened in any of their recent games. If the defenses hold as they have lately and the scoring stays around the expected 2.1-0.9 split, the under should win comfortably.
Recent results
Los Angeles FC have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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