How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Vancouver Whitecaps and 0.9 from Los Angeles Galaxy, so Vancouver Whitecaps come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.2 goals (xG 2.3-0.9), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 83%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Los Angeles Galaxy have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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