What to expect
We expect about 2.9 goals from Inter Miami and 1.2 from CF Montreal, so Inter Miami come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 4.1 goals in total (xG 2.9-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 79%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast.
