How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The numbers we have for this clash are almost identical – New York Red Bulls are expected to score about 1.5 goals and Philadelphia Union about 1.6. That means there is very little separating the two sides on paper. With such close expectations the game should be open, with chances for both teams rather than a tight, defensive battle.
Looking at the recent run, the Red Bulls have struggled, managing just one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five league games. The Union, on the other hand, have been solid, unbeaten in five games with three wins and two draws, although they have just come off two consecutive draws. In the head-to-head record the Union have the edge, winning three of the last five meetings while the Red Bulls have only one win and one draw. Those meetings have averaged just 1.8 goals, and the most recent encounter ended 3-1 to Philadelphia.
Our pick is the Under 4.5 goals. We think the game will produce roughly 3.2 goals – about 1.6 each – so the line is high enough that only five or more goals would beat us. The price of 1.38 is longer than we feel the game deserves, which makes the pick attractive.
It would have to go very wrong for us to lose. We would need a wild, high-scoring affair with both sides finding the net several times, something that has not been common in their recent meetings. Our confidence is strong; we see an 82% chance that the total stays under 4.5 goals.
Recent meetings
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