Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City prediction

Nashville SCDDWWW

Sporting Kansas CityLWWLL

What to expect

We expect about 2.5 goals from Nashville SC and 1.1 from Sporting Kansas City, so Nashville SC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Nashville SC come into this on three straight wins. Sporting Kansas City come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.6 goals between the two (xG 2.5-1.1), landing about 62% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.

We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say

✓Nashville SC are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.

✓Sporting Kansas City have won two of their last five.

✓Four of the last four meetings had three goals or more.

✓Both teams scored in three of the last four meetings.

Recent meetings

21 Sept 2023Sporting Kansas City 0 - 3 Nashville SC

19 Jun 2022Nashville SC 1 - 2 Sporting Kansas City

10 Apr 2022Sporting Kansas City 1 - 2 Nashville SC

12 Oct 2020Sporting Kansas City 2 - 1 Nashville SC

The last four meetings are split 2-2, with no drawn.

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