What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from New York Red Bulls and 1.8 from Chicago Fire, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.7), and we make both teams to score about 61%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓New York Red Bulls have won two of their last five.
✓Chicago Fire have won three of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
9 May 2026Chicago Fire 1 - 3 New York Red Bulls
27 Jul 2025Chicago Fire 1 - 0 New York Red Bulls
6 Apr 2025New York Red Bulls 2 - 1 Chicago Fire
15 Sept 2024Chicago Fire 2 - 1 New York Red Bulls
14 Apr 2024New York Red Bulls 0 - 0 Chicago Fire
One thing to watch
A clean sheet at either end undoes it, and one side shutting up shop is always on the cards. At around 61% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
