How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Orlando City and 1.6 from Real Salt Lake, so Orlando City come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.5 goals (xG 1.9-1.7) and it takes five to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 80%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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