What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Orlando City and 1.6 from Real Salt Lake, so Orlando City come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.9-1.6), and we make both teams to score about 61%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Orlando City have won two of their last five.
✓Real Salt Lake have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
9 Jul 2023Real Salt Lake 4 - 0 Orlando City
29 Feb 2020Orlando City 0 - 0 Real Salt Lake
14 Apr 2019Real Salt Lake 2 - 1 Orlando City
6 May 2018Orlando City 3 - 1 Real Salt Lake
1 Jul 2017Real Salt Lake 0 - 1 Orlando City
One thing to watch
A clean sheet at either end undoes it, and one side shutting up shop is always on the cards. At around 61% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
