How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Philadelphia Union to win 61%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Philadelphia Union host CF Montreal at home on 5 September. The Union sit ninth in the 15-team league with 27 points from 23 matches and a –3 goal difference. One place above them is Orlando City, just a point ahead, while Red Bull New York sit one spot below with the same points. Both clubs are looking to move up the table, and a win for Philadelphia would give them a small cushion above the relegation-free zone and keep the pressure on the teams around them.
Union have been in good form over their last eight games, winning five, drawing two and losing just once. Their recent results, newest first, are a 3-1 win away at New York Red Bulls, a 1-1 draw away at Austin FC, a 2-2 draw at home with Inter Miami, a 3-2 win away at New York City, a 3-2 win at home over Atlanta United, and a 1-0 home victory over Seattle Sounders. That run has produced 20 goals for and 15 against, with only one clean sheet. Seven of those eight matches have seen both sides score, and six featured three or more goals, showing Union’s games tend to be open.
Montreal have struggled in their last eight outings, managing only one win, four draws and three defeats. Their latest fixtures are a 7-1 loss away to Inter Miami, a 2-2 home draw with Los Angeles Galaxy, a 2-1 away win over Columbus Crew, a 1-1 home draw with D.C. United, a 2-2 home draw with New England Revolution and a 1-0 home loss to Inter Miami. In those eight games they have scored eight and let in 15, keeping just one clean sheet while failing to find the net in three matches. Their recent road form is poor, with one win and two losses in the last three trips.
When the two clubs meet, the games have been high-scoring. In the last five meetings Union have won three times, Montreal once and there has been one draw. Those matches have averaged 3.8 goals, and the most recent encounter on 11 April ended 2-1 to Philadelphia. The pattern suggests another open contest with chances for both sides, and the goal-expectancy numbers of 2.2 for Union and 1.1 for Montreal fit that picture.
We pick Philadelphia Union to win. The Union are the stronger side on the goal expectations and have been unbeaten in their last seven games, while Montreal have only one win in their last eight and have been hit hard by Inter Miami. The price of 1.45 is shorter than our reading, but the chance of a Union victory sits around 61 per cent, which makes the pick look solid. For us to be wrong, Union would need to drop points at home and Montreal would have to find a rare burst of form on the road, scoring and keeping a clean sheet. That would be a surprise given the recent trends.
Recent meetings
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