Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake prediction

Philadelphia UnionWWWWW

Real Salt LakeLLLLL

What to expect

We expect about 2.2 goals from Philadelphia Union and 1.1 from Real Salt Lake, so Philadelphia Union come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Philadelphia Union come into this on five straight wins. Real Salt Lake come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.3 goals between the two (xG 2.2-1.1), landing about 67% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.

We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say

✓Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last five — five wins and no draws.

✓Real Salt Lake have not won any of their last five.

✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.

✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

28 Apr 2024Philadelphia Union 1 - 2 Real Salt Lake

14 Jul 2019Real Salt Lake 4 - 0 Philadelphia Union

20 May 2018Philadelphia Union 4 - 1 Real Salt Lake

28 May 2017Real Salt Lake 1 - 0 Philadelphia Union

1 Aug 2016Philadelphia Union 1 - 2 Real Salt Lake

Real Salt Lake have won four of the last five meetings.

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