How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Portland Timbers and 1.6 from San Diego FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.4 goals in total (xG 1.8-1.6), keeping it under more often than not (about 80%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
San Diego FC have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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