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Football/MLS/St. Louis City v FC Dallas
MLS · Lynn Family Stadium

St. Louis City v FC Dallas prediction

St. Louis City crestSt. Louis CityWWDDW
v
FC Dallas crestFC DallasDLDWW

What to expect

We expect about 1.6 goals from St. Louis City and 1.5 from FC Dallas, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

FC Dallas come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.6-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 60%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say
St. Louis City are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
FC Dallas have won two of their last five.
Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

12 Apr 2026FC Dallas 1 - 1 St. Louis City
7 Sept 2025St. Louis City 1 - 1 FC Dallas
20 Jul 2025FC Dallas 3 - 0 St. Louis City
16 Jun 2024FC Dallas 2 - 0 St. Louis City
7 Apr 2024St. Louis City 0 - 0 FC Dallas
FC Dallas have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.

One thing to watch

One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. The price is shorter than our own read of about 60%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.

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