How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks very even. Both sides are expected to score about 1.3 goals, so the total is around 2.6. There is almost nothing separating them on those numbers, which suggests a tight match rather than a free-flowing affair. Expect both teams to have chances, but not a flood of goals.
Recent results show Toronto FC have been steady at home and away, with two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five league games. New York City have been a little less consistent, managing one win, two draws and two defeats in the same span. In their head-to-head history, New York City have won four of the last five meetings, with one draw, and those games have averaged three goals. The most recent encounter ended 1-1 on 1 August, reinforcing the idea that both sides can find the net.
Our pick is both teams to score. Both clubs average enough threat to get a goal, and we feel there is a 59 % chance this will happen. The price of 1.57 is shorter than what we see in the match, so we think it is a good price for the outcome.
It would have to go wrong if the game turns into a defensive slog with few chances, or if one side shuts down the other completely. That would be unlikely given the goal averages and recent 1-1 draw. We hold our view fairly strongly, but we know a single clean-sheet could upset it.
Recent meetings
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
