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Football/MLS/Vancouver Whitecaps v Houston Dynamo
MLS · BC Place

Vancouver Whitecaps v Houston Dynamo: how it went

Vancouver Whitecaps crestVancouver WhitecapsWLDDW
0 - 1
Houston Dynamo crestHouston DynamoDWWWW
Full time

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Vancouver Whitecaps to win 60%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.9 goals from Vancouver Whitecaps and 0.9 from Houston Dynamo, so Vancouver Whitecaps come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Houston Dynamo come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Vancouver Whitecaps to win. Vancouver Whitecaps are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say
✓Vancouver Whitecaps have won two of their last five.
✓Houston Dynamo are unbeaten in their last five — four wins and one draw.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

17 May 2026Houston Dynamo 1 - 0 Vancouver Whitecaps
18 Aug 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 1 - 1 Houston Dynamo
17 Jul 2025Houston Dynamo 0 - 3 Vancouver Whitecaps
19 Sept 2024Houston Dynamo 1 - 1 Vancouver Whitecaps
21 Jul 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 3 - 4 Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.

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