What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.0 from St. Louis City, so Vancouver Whitecaps come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Vancouver Whitecaps to win. Vancouver Whitecaps are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.0), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn St. Louis City a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 62%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
