How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Carrick Rangers to win 46%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Bangor and 1.5 from Carrick Rangers, so Carrick Rangers come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Carrick Rangers to win. Carrick Rangers shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.5), and we make them about 48% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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