How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Cliftonville (Draw No Bet) 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Cliftonville and 1.1 from Dungannon Swifts, so Cliftonville come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Cliftonville (Draw No Bet). Cliftonville are favoured here (xG 2.2-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Cliftonville defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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