What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Cliftonville and 1.1 from Dungannon Swifts, so Cliftonville come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Cliftonville (Draw No Bet). Cliftonville are favoured here (xG 2.2-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Cliftonville defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Dungannon Swifts win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed.