How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Glentoran to win 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Glentoran and 0.9 from Crusaders, so Glentoran come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Glentoran to win. Glentoran are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.0), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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