How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Coleraine to win 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Bangor host Columbaine in a NIFL Premiership clash at the end of October. Bangor sit second from bottom, 11th out of 12, with five points from nine games and a minus eleven goal difference. They are already in the relegation places and only a single point separates them from the team below, Portadown. One place above them, Limavady sit on four points more. Columbaine sit on top of the table, first with twenty-two points from the same nine matches and a plus eleven goal difference. They share the lead with Linfield, who are level on points but sit one spot below. The two sides are therefore fighting for very different things – Bangor need points to climb out of the drop zone while Columbaine look to extend their early season lead.
Bangor’s recent form has been mixed. In their last four games they have won once, drawn once and lost twice. The most recent result was a 2-1 defeat away to Crusaders. Before that they beat Portadown 3-1 at home, then lost 3-1 away to Limavada and managed a 1-1 draw away at Glentoran. In those four matches Bangor have scored six goals and let in seven. Three of the games produced three or more goals and both sides found the net in each of those fixtures. The last time they played was eight days ago.
Columbaine have been in better shape. Their last four outings produced three wins and one loss. The most recent game was a 3-1 loss at home to Linfield. Prior to that they earned a 1-0 home win over Limavada, a 2-1 away victory at Glentoran and a 3-2 home success against Ballymena United. Across those four matches they have scored seven and conceded six, keeping only one clean sheet. Three of the games featured three or more goals and both teams scored in three of them. Their most recent match was nine days ago.
When the two clubs have met before they have generally produced open games with goals at both ends. The numbers we have for this encounter suggest a similar pattern – an expected total of just over three goals, with both sides likely to find the net. Bangor have a 55 % chance of scoring at least once and a 20 % chance of scoring twice or more. Columbaine are even more likely to score, with a 90 % chance of getting on the board and a 68 % chance of scoring two or more. The expectation is an attacking contest rather than a defensive slog.
We back Columbaine to win. Our own reading gives them about a 73 % chance of taking all three points, and the price of 1.23 looks short compared with that assessment. The pick is straightforward – Columbaine are the stronger side on the numbers and they have the quality to break down a Bangor defence that has let in seven goals in their last four games. For the pick to go wrong, Bangor would need to score early and keep a clean sheet, or Columbaine would have to repeat the three-goal loss to Linfield. Barring a surprise defensive stand from the home side, the odds favour a Columbaine victory.
Recent results
Coleraine have won two of the last three meetings.
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