How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Cliftonville to win 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Cliftonville host Ballymena United at home in a NIFL Premiership clash on 3 October 2026. Both clubs sit in the relegation zone, with Cliftonville seventh on 12 points after nine games and Ballymena United ninth on nine points after eight. The gap between them and safety is thin – Dungannon Swifts sit just one point above Cliftonville, while Carrick Rangers are two points behind. A win for either side would lift them a place or two out of the danger zone, and a loss could see them slip further toward the bottom. On paper Cliftonville look the stronger outfit: our goal forecasts give them 1.8 goals per game versus Ballymena United’s 1.0, and they have an 84 % chance of scoring at least once compared with 64 % for the visitors.
Cliftonville’s recent form has been poor. In their last four matches they have managed only one win, three defeats and no draws. The run began with a 3-1 victory over Carrick Rangers away, but has since turned into three straight losses: 2-0 at Larne, 2-1 to Glentoran at home and a 1-0 defeat to Limavady away. Across those four games they have scored four goals while conceding six, and they failed to find the net in two of them. Two of the fixtures featured three or more goals, and in both of those both sides got on the scoresheet. Their most recent game was seven days ago, a narrow loss to Limavady.
Ballymena United have been steadier in their last four outings. They have recorded one win, two draws and one defeat, remaining unbeaten in the three most recent matches. Their results are a 2-0 win over Portadown at home, a 1-1 draw away at Dungannon Swifts, another 1-1 draw at home against Carrick Rangers, and a 3-2 loss away to Coleraine. In this span they have scored six goals and let in five, keeping a clean sheet only in the win over Portadown. Three of the four games produced three or more goals, and in each of those both sides scored. Their latest appearance was also seven days ago, a hard-fought 3-2 defeat at Coleraine.
The two clubs have met before, but the record of those meetings is not supplied, so we cannot comment on head-to-head history. What we can say is that the match is likely to be a low-scoring affair, given the numbers. Cliftonville are expected to score once or twice, while Ballymena United are more likely to find the net only once. Both sides have shown the ability to score but also to concede, so a single goal could decide the game. The odds of Cliftonville scoring at all are high (84 %), and they have a better chance of scoring twice (55 %) than Ballymena United (28 %). This suggests a modest goal total, perhaps a 1-0 or 2-1 result.
Our pick is a Cliftonville win. The price of 2.25 is longer than we feel the game warrants, but the numbers give Cliftonville about a 55 % chance of coming out on top, which we think is a fair assessment. For this to go wrong, Ballymena United would need to tighten up defensively and grab a clean sheet, then score at least once – something they have only done once in their last four games. If they manage to hold Cliftonville to a single goal and snatch a draw, the price would not pay off. Otherwise, with Cliftonville’s higher scoring probability and home advantage, we see them as the cleaner choice.
Recent results
Cliftonville have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
