How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Carrick Rangers or Draw 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Carrick Rangers host Crusaders at home in the NIFL Premiership on 3 October 2026. The Rangers sit eighth out of twelve with ten points from nine games and a –4 goal difference, just inside the relegation zone. One place above them, Cliftonville sit with twelve points, while Ballymena United sit one spot below with nine. Crusaders are much higher, sitting fourth with fifteen points and a +1 goal difference. Larne are one point ahead of them and Glentoran sit two points behind. Both teams played their previous match seven days ago, so the game will decide whether the Rangers can climb out of the drop zone or if Crusaders can keep pressure on the top three.
Carrick Rangers have not won any of their last four games. Their most recent result was a 2-0 loss away to Glentoran. Before that they fell 5-2 at home to Larne, drew 1-1 away at Ballymena United and lost 3-1 at home to Cliftonville. In those four matches they have scored four goals and let in eleven. They failed to find the net in the Glentoran game, but in three of the four fixtures both sides scored. The run shows a side that can score but is leaking goals, and the two defeats in a row underline a fragile confidence.
Crusaders come into the match on a mixed four-game run. They beat Bangor 2-1 at home, then suffered a 1-0 defeat away at Linfield. After that they enjoyed a 3-0 home win over Dungannon Swifts and a 2-1 home loss to Limavady. Across those games they have scored six goals and conceded four, keeping one clean sheet and being shut out once. Three of the four matches produced three or more goals, and in two of them both teams found the net. The most recent win against Bangor shows they can still produce goals on the road.
When the two clubs meet, the numbers suggest a very open encounter. Both sides have a high chance of scoring – 81 % for Carrick Rangers and 77 % for Crusaders – and the likelihood of either side scoring twice is also strong. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to chances at both ends. Given the Rangers’ recent defensive frailties and Crusaders’ ability to find the net, we expect a game with several scoring opportunities and a possible lead change.
Our pick is Carrick Rangers or a draw. The price of 1.17 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, giving us a wider safety net while still backing the Rangers to avoid defeat. We think a draw or a narrow win for the home side is plausible, especially if the Rangers tighten up after recent heavy losses. The pick will fail if Crusaders dominate and win by two or more goals, or if the Rangers are shut out again. The chance of our selection succeeding sits at 64 % in our view.
Recent results
Carrick Rangers have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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