How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Cerro Porteño to win 54%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Cerro Porteño host 2 de Mayo at home in the Paraguay División Profesional on 5 October. Cerro Porteño sit eighth in the 12-team table with 17 points from 12 games and a +3 goal difference. They are just one point behind Sportivo Ameliano in seventh place and four points ahead of Luqueño in ninth. 2 de Mayo sit much higher, fourth with 22 points and a +1 goal difference, only a point behind leaders Nacional and a single point ahead of Guaraní. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions – Cerro Porteño hoping to climb back into the top half and 2 de Mayo trying to keep pressure on the leaders.
Cerro Porteño’s recent form shows a mixed run of four games. They beat Rubio Ñú 2-1 at home, then fell 2-1 away to Sportivo Trinidense. They bounced back with a 1-0 home win over Rubio Ñú and a 1-1 draw away at Guaraní. In those four matches they have scored five goals and let in four, keeping one clean sheet. Two of the games produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in those encounters. The last match was five days ago, a narrow victory that gave them a small boost.
2 de Mayo have struggled badly in their last four outings. Their most recent result was a 2-2 draw away at Rubio Ñú, after which they suffered a 4-0 home loss to Sol de America, a 3-0 defeat away to Nacional and a 2-0 loss at home to Libertad. Over those four games they have managed only two goals while conceding eleven, and they failed to find the net in three of the matches. Three of the four fixtures saw three or more goals, but only the draw with Rubio Ñú featured both sides scoring. Their last appearance was nine days ago, leaving them without a win for a month.
When the two clubs meet, the numbers suggest a clear edge for the home side. Cerro Porteño are expected to score about 1.6 goals, while 2 de Mayo average only 0.8. The chance of Cerro Porteño scoring at all is high at 81 percent, and they have a decent chance of scoring twice or more at 48 percent. 2 de Mayo’s chances are lower – 55 percent to score and just 18 percent to hit two goals. The pattern of recent games points to a low-scoring affair for the visitors and a modest chance of a goal for the hosts, meaning the match could be decided by a single strike.
We pick Cerro Porteño to win. The price of 1.54 is shorter than our own view of the game, which gives them about a 56 percent chance of coming out on top. The home side have the better recent form, a better scoring record and a stronger defensive showing than a 2 de Mayo side that has not won in four games and has struggled to score. For our pick to go wrong, Cerro Porteño would need to be shut out and 2 de Mayo would have to find a goal, something that has happened rarely in the last month. All things considered, backing the home team looks the cleaner play.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
