How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Olimpia or Draw 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Olimpia host Nacional at their home ground in the Paraguayan top flight on 6 October 2026. Olimpia sit third in the twelve-team table with 25 points and a +12 goal difference, just one point behind 2 de Mayo and two ahead of Sportivo Trinidense. Nacional are fifth with 22 points, also on a +12 goal difference, one point behind Sportivo Trinidense and one ahead of Guaraní. A win for Olimpia would lift them to within a single point of the second place spot, while a loss could see them slip to fourth. Both clubs are close in the standings and the match could decide who pushes for the final European places.
Olimpia arrive on the back of three straight victories. Their most recent game was a 1-0 win away at Libertad. Before that they beat Sportivo San Lorenzo 3-0 away and then dispatched Luqueño 3-0 at home. In those three matches they have scored seven goals and kept three clean sheets, conceding none. Two of the three wins featured three or more goals, and in none of them did the opposition find the net. The last win came eight days ago, giving the visitors a short break before the clash.
Nacional come into the game after a mixed run of eight matches, but they have won their last two. They began that run with a 2-0 home victory over Montevideo City Torque, followed by a 2-0 away win at Cerro Largo. Prior to those wins they drew 1-1 with Sportivo Ameliano at home, then beat Defensor Sporting 3-2 at home. Their two defeats were both 4-0 losses to Famalicão at home. Over the eight games they have scored twelve and let in eleven, keeping four clean sheets and failing to score in two matches. The most recent win came just one day ago, so they will be playing again after a very short turnaround.
When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be tight affairs with few goals. This meeting is likely to follow that pattern, especially given Olimpia’s recent defensive solidity and Nacional’s recent ability to score but also to be shut out. Both teams have shown they can win by narrow margins, and the recent form suggests a low-scoring contest is probable.
We back Olimpia or a draw at 1.25. The price is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, giving us a safety net if the match ends level. Olimpia have a 75 % chance of scoring and a 40 % chance of scoring twice, while Nacional’s chances are slightly lower at 68 % and 30 % respectively. If Olimpia keep a clean sheet, the draw becomes a real possibility. The pick would fail only if Nacional manage to score two goals and keep Olimpia from scoring at all, which looks unlikely given the recent trends. Overall we feel the price is good and the odds of a successful outcome are high.
Recent results
Nacional have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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