Sportivo Trinidense v Luqueño: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Sportivo Trinidense to win 55%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Sportivo Trinidense host Lu queño at home on 5 October in the Paraguayan top division. Trinidense sit sixth in the twelve-team table with twenty points from twelve matches and a plus-nine goal difference. One spot above them sits Guaraní with a point to spare, while Sportivo Ameliano trail by two points. Lu queño are ninth, on thirteen points and a minus-nine goal difference. They are four points behind the team just above them, Cerro Porteño, and also four points ahead of the side below, Rubio Ñú. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions, but Trinidense have more to gain in the chase for a top-half finish.

Trinidense have been solid in their last three outings. They began with a 2-1 victory over Cerro Porteño at home, then fell 1-0 to Guaraní on their own turf, and bounced back with a 3-1 win away at Recoleta. In those three games they have scored five goals and let in three. They have won two, lost one and have not drawn any. Two of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in each of those games. Their most recent match was nine days ago.

Lu queño have struggled in the same period. Their latest three results are a 1-0 loss at home to Guaraní, a 1-0 win over Recoleta at home, and a 3-0 defeat away to Olimpia. Across those fixtures they have managed only one goal while conceding four. They have one win and two defeats, with no draws. They kept a clean sheet in the win over Recoleta but failed to score in the other two games. Their last appearance was ten days ago.

When the two sides meet, the recent form suggests a game with few chances for Lu queño and a good chance for Trinidense to find the net. Trinidense have scored in two of their last three matches and have shown they can score three goals away from home. Lu queño have scored only once in three games and have struggled to break down opponents. The pattern points to a match where Trinidense are likely to dominate possession and create the better chances, while Lu queño will be looking to stay compact and hope for a counter-attack.

We pick Sportivo Trinidense to win. The numbers give them an expected 1.7 goals to Lu queño’s 0.9, and they have an 85 % chance of scoring at least once. Our chance of a correct pick sits at 55 %, and the price of 1.85 matches our view of the game. The bet looks good if Trinidense keep their recent scoring form and Lu queño continue to find it hard to break down opponents. It would go wrong if Lu queño manage to tighten up defensively and snatch a low-scoring draw or if Trinidense fail to convert the chances they create.