What to expect
Recoleta host Libertad at the Parque del Guairá on 3 October. Recoleta sit 11th out of 12 with eight points from twelve games and a goal difference of minus eleven. Libertad are second with twenty-three points and a plus six goal difference. A win for Recoleta would lift them above the relegation zone, while a loss would leave them three points clear of the drop but still in danger. For Libertad the match is a chance to keep pressure on league leaders Olimpia and to stay within one point of Nacional. Both clubs need points, but the gap between them is large, and the table shows a clear hierarchy.
Recoleta have played four games in their most recent stretch. They drew 0-0 away at Sportivo San Lorenzo, then beat Guairena 3-1 at home. After that they lost 1-0 away to Luqueño and fell 3-1 at home to Sportivo Trinidense. In those four matches they have scored four goals and let in five. They kept one clean sheet and failed to score in two games. Two of the four games featured three or more goals, and both sides found the net in two of those matches.
Libertad come into the game after five outings. They lost 1-0 at home to Olimpia, then travelled to beat Emelec 2-1. They drew 1-1 at home with Sportivo Ameliano, suffered a 3-2 home defeat to Independiente del Valle and beat 2 de Mayo 2-0 away. In that run they have scored seven and conceded six. They kept one clean sheet and were held scoreless once. Three of the five games produced three or more goals, and both teams scored in three of those encounters.
The two sides have met before, but the record we have does not give details, so we cannot draw on a head-to-head history. The numbers we have suggest an open game with chances at both ends. Recoleta have a 74 % chance of scoring at least once and a 41 % chance of scoring twice or more. Libertad have an 85 % chance of scoring at all and a 56 % chance of scoring twice or more. Both teams have shown they can both score and concede in recent games, so a match with several goals is likely.
Our pick is Libertad or a draw. The price of 1.23 is shorter than we feel the game deserves, giving us a wider safety net. We think Libertad are the stronger side, but Recoleta are fighting for survival and will push forward. If Libertad slip and lose, the price would not pay out, but a draw or a win for Libertad would. Our chance of this selection being right sits at 73 % in our view.
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