What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Guaraní and 1.1 from Cerro Porteño, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Cerro Porteño come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Cerro Porteño to win. Cerro Porteño shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.2), and we make them about 35% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.