How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Sportivo Ameliano to win 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Sportivo Ameliano and 0.6 from Sportivo San Lorenzo, so Sportivo Ameliano come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sportivo Ameliano to win. Sportivo Ameliano are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.6), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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