How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Olimpia to win 61%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Olimpia and 0.9 from Luqueño, so Olimpia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Olimpia to win. Olimpia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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