How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Sportivo Trinidense to win 41%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Recoleta and 1.6 from Sportivo Trinidense, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sportivo Trinidense to win. Sportivo Trinidense shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.6), and we make them about 43% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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