How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Guaraní (Draw No Bet) 61%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Guaraní and 0.9 from Sportivo Ameliano, so Guaraní come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Guaraní (Draw No Bet). Guaraní are favoured here (xG 1.4-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Guaraní defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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