How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Sportivo Trinidense (Draw No Bet) 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Sportivo Trinidense and 0.9 from 2 de Mayo, so Sportivo Trinidense come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sportivo Trinidense (Draw No Bet). Sportivo Trinidense are favoured here (xG 1.4-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Sportivo Trinidense defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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