How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Guaraní to win 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Guaraní and 0.5 from Sportivo San Lorenzo, so Guaraní come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Guaraní come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Guaraní to win. Guaraní are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.5), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Guaraní have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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