How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Libertad or Draw 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Libertad host Olimpia at home on 28 September in the Paraguayan top flight. Libertad sit top of the twelve-team table with 23 points from eleven matches and a +7 goal difference. One point separates them from Nacional in second place. Olimpia are fourth with 22 points and a +11 goal difference, just a single point behind 2 de Mayo in third and two points ahead of Guaraní in fifth. Both clubs are within striking distance of the title, so a win for either side will tighten the race at the summit. The numbers we have suggest Libertad are the stronger side, with a slightly higher expected goal tally (1.4 versus 1.2) and a better chance of scoring at least once (78 % compared with 75 %). The price of 1.50 for Libertad or a draw mirrors our reading of a close contest where the home side should at least avoid defeat.
Libertad’s recent form shows a mixed run of four games, the most recent being a 2-1 away win over Emelec. Before that they held Sportivo Ameliano to a 1-1 draw at home, then suffered a 3-2 home loss to Independiente del Valle, and earlier in the spell beat 2 de Mayo 2-0 away. In those four matches Libertad have scored seven goals and let in five. They kept only one clean sheet, the 2-0 victory at 2 de Mayo. Two of the four games featured three or more goals, and both of those fixtures saw both sides find the net. The last outing was eight days ago, giving the team a short but active schedule that ends with a home game against a direct rival.
Our pick is Libertad or a draw at 1.50. The price sits close to what we think will happen – a tight game where the home side is likely to stay unbeaten but may not win outright. The chance of this outcome succeeding is about 67 %. For the pick to go wrong, Olimpia would need to win outright, which would require them to break their recent pattern of dropping points against top opposition. If the match opens up and both sides score, the draw part of the bet still protects us. In short, the selection offers a sensible safety net while still backing the slight edge that Libertad enjoy.
Recent results
Libertad have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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