How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Nacional or Draw 80%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Nacional host Sportivo Ameliano at home on 25 September. Nacional sit third in the 12-team table with 21 points from 11 games, a +12 goal difference, just one point behind leaders Olimpia and level with 2 de Mayo below them. Sportivo Ameliano are seventh, on 17 points, goal difference +1, equal on points with both Guaraní above and Cerro Porteño below. Both clubs are close in the mid-table, but Nacional have the edge in points and form, and a win would lift them back to second place while a draw would keep the gap to Olimpia small.
Nacional’s recent run of eight matches – home and away – has been mixed. They beat Defensor Sporting 3-2 at home, then suffered two 4-0 defeats to Famalicão at home, followed by a 3-0 home win over 2 de Mayo. After that they won 1-0 away at Rubio Ñú and lost 3-1 at home to Alverca. In those eight games they have scored nine goals and let in 16, keeping only two clean sheets and failing to find the net in three matches. The last five days saw their most recent win, 3-2 over Defensor Sporting.
Sportivo Ameliano’s last five fixtures have been tighter. They beat Guaraní 2-1, then drew 0-0 with Cerro Porteño, lost 1-2 to Olimpia, beat Sol de América 1-0 and most recently drew 1-1 with Libertad. That 1-1 draw was a hard-fought game with both sides creating chances, but neither could pull away. Across those five matches the Ameliano side have scored five goals and conceded four, showing they can hold their own but lack firepower.
When the two teams have met before, the games have been low-scoring affairs, with each side finding the net only once or not at all. The numbers we have – Nacional expected to score 1.3 goals and Ameliano 0.8 – point to a tight, low-scoring contest. Nacional have a 76 % chance of scoring at all and a 41 % chance of scoring twice, while Ameliano’s chances are 59 % and 21 % respectively. Expect a single goal or a goalless draw, with both defenses likely to stay compact.
We back Nacional or the draw at 1.19. The price is shorter than our reading, so it gives us a wider safety net while still favouring the stronger side. Nacional’s home record is shaky, but they still have a better chance of scoring and a superior league position. For our pick to fail, Nacional would need to be shut out and the visitors to find the net, which looks unlikely given the low scoring probabilities. The price looks good and we feel comfortable with an 80 % chance of this selection succeeding.
Recent results
Sportivo Ameliano have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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