How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Recoleta to win 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Sportivo San Lorenzo host Recoleta at home in the Paraguay División Profesional on 28 September 2026. Both clubs are stuck at the bottom of the table. San Lorenzo sit last, 12th out of 12, with just one point from eleven games and a goal difference of minus eighteen. Recoleta are one spot above them, 11th, with seven points and a goal difference of minus eleven, six points clear of San Lorenzo. The two are separated by only one place, but the gap in points means a win for Recoleta would pull them two places clear of the bottom while a loss would leave San Lorenzo still rooted to the very bottom.
San Lorenzo have played three matches in their recent run, winning one and losing two. Their most recent game was a 2-1 victory over 4 de Mayo at home, which gave them their only win in this stretch. Before that they fell 3-0 to Olimpia at home and then lost 1-0 away to Sportivo Ameliano. In those three games they have scored only two goals while conceding five. They failed to find the net in two of the three matches and only one of the games saw both sides score.
Recoleta’s last three outings also read one win and two defeats. They began with a 3-1 home win over Guairena, then suffered a 1-0 loss away to Luqueño and a 3-1 defeat at home to Sportivo Trinidense. Across those three fixtures they have scored four goals and let in five. They missed the net only once, in the narrow loss to Luqueño. Two of the three games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in two of them. Their most recent match was the 3-1 loss to Trinidense, played just four days ago, so they come into this tie on a short turnaround.
The two clubs have met before, but the record is not provided, so we cannot draw on a head-to-head history. Based on the recent form we can expect a low-scoring affair. San Lorenzo have struggled to score, managing just two goals in three games, while Recoleta have found the net four times. Both sides have been conceding heavily, so a modest total of around three goals fits the pattern.
Our pick is Recoleta to win. The numbers give Recoleta an expected 1.9 goals compared with San Lorenzo’s 0.9, and they have an 85 % chance to score at all. We see about a 60 % chance of a Recoleta victory, which matches our own reading of the game. The price of 2.30 is longer than we think the result is worth, so it looks attractive. For the pick to go wrong Recoleta would have to fail to score, which is unlikely given their 85 % scoring chance, or San Lorenzo would need to find a rare double-goal performance, something they have only done once in their recent run. If either of those happens the result could flip, but the balance still favours Recoleta.
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