What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Sportivo San Lorenzo and 1.9 from Recoleta, so Recoleta come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sportivo San Lorenzo come into this on two straight defeats. Recoleta come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Recoleta to win. Recoleta shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.9), and we make them about 61% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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