How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Libertad to win 51%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Libertad and 0.9 from Sportivo Ameliano, so Libertad come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Libertad come into this on two straight wins. Sportivo Ameliano come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Libertad to win. Libertad are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.9), and we make them about 53% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.80, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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