How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Nacional to win 45%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Nacional and 0.8 from 2 de Mayo, so Nacional come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Nacional to win. Nacional are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.78, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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