How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Sportivo Trinidense to win 36%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Sportivo Trinidense and 1.1 from Guaraní, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sportivo Trinidense to win. Sportivo Trinidense are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.1), and we make them about 37% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sportivo Trinidense have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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