How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Guaraní or Draw 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Luqueño host Guaraní at home in the Paraguay División Profesional on 25 September 2026. Luqueño sit ninth out of twelve with 13 points from 11 games and a goal difference of minus eight. They are four points behind fourth-placed Cerro Porteño and five points ahead of Rubio Ñú, who sit just below them. Guaraní are a little higher in the table, sixth with 17 points from the same number of matches and a modest plus-three goal difference. They sit level on points with the teams above and below them – Sportivo Trinidense and Sportivo Ameliano – making every point valuable as the season heads into its final stretch. Both clubs will be looking to improve their positions, but Guaraní have the edge in the standings and the numbers suggest they are the stronger side.
Our pick is Guaraní or a draw at odds of 1.34. The price matches our view of a tight game where Guaraní should have the edge but are not guaranteed to win. We expect about 2.4 goals in total, with Luqueño likely to find the net once and Guaraní about one and a half times. The chance of Luqueño scoring at all is 63 %, while Guaraní’s chance to score is 79 %. A draw or a Guaraní win feels safe; the price is short enough to be attractive and the odds of this outcome happening sit at 77 % in our view. It would only go wrong if Luqueño manage to score twice and keep a clean sheet, or if Guaraní fail to find the net altogether. In those rare cases the price would not pay off.
Recent results
Guaraní have won four of the last five meetings.
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