How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Recoleta to win 40%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Luqueño and 1.7 from Recoleta, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Luqueño come into this on two straight defeats. Recoleta come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Recoleta to win. Recoleta shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.7), and we make them about 42% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.00, which works out at about 33 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Luqueño have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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