How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Luqueño or Draw 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Luqueño and 0.9 from Rubio Ñú, so Luqueño come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Luqueño or Draw. This covers Luqueño or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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