How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Nacional or Draw 86%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Sportivo San Lorenzo and 1.5 from Nacional, so Nacional come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Nacional or Draw. This covers Nacional or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 86 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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