How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Nacional to win 50%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Rubio Ñú and 1.4 from Nacional, so Nacional come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Nacional to win. Nacional shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.4), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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