How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Alianza Lima to win 50%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from ADC Juan Pablo II and 1.6 from Alianza Lima, so Alianza Lima come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Alianza Lima to win. Alianza Lima shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.6), and we make them about 51% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.72, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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