What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from FBC Melgar and 0.8 from Asociación Deportiva Tarma, so FBC Melgar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FBC Melgar to win. FBC Melgar are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.8), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Asociación Deportiva Tarma a draw or better. We make it about 71% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
