Alianza Atlético v Comerciantes Unidos: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Alianza Atlético to win 59%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.7 goals from Alianza Atlético and 0.8 from Comerciantes Unidos, so Alianza Atlético come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Alianza Atlético to win. Alianza Atlético are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.