What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Alianza Atlético and 0.8 from Comerciantes Unidos, so Alianza Atlético come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Alianza Atlético to win. Alianza Atlético are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
