How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Universitario de Deportes to win 35%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.1 from Universitario de Deportes, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Universitario de Deportes to win. Universitario de Deportes shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.1), and we make them about 37% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Universitario de Deportes have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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