FC Cajamarca v Cusco FC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Cusco FC to win 37%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.8 goals from FC Cajamarca and 1.7 from Cusco FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Cusco FC to win. Cusco FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.7), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.