How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made FBC Melgar to win 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from FBC Melgar and 0.7 from Sport Boys, so FBC Melgar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
FBC Melgar come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FBC Melgar to win. FBC Melgar are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.7), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
FBC Melgar have won four of the last five meetings.
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