Asociación Deportiva Tarma v CD Moquegua prediction

What to expect

The match takes place at Tarma’s home ground in the Peru Liga 1. Tarma sit second-last in the table, 17th out of 18, with only seven points from thirteen games and a goal difference of minus 15. One place above them is CD Moquegua, three points clear and fighting to stay out of the relegation zone. Below Tarma sit CD UT Cajamarca, ten points behind. Both clubs are desperate for points, but the numbers show Tarma as the stronger side. They are expected to score 1.8 goals on average while Moquegua average only 0.8, and the price for a Tarma win is 1.66, which is shorter than our own reading of the game.

Tarma’s recent form has been uneven. In their last five matches they have recorded one win, two draws and two defeats. The most recent result was a 1-1 draw away at Atlético Grau. Before that they lost 2-1 away to Los Chankas, then held FC Cajamarca to a goalless draw at home. Their only win in the run came at home against Cienciano, a 2-1 victory. The stretch began with a 2-0 loss away to Alianza Lima. Over those five games Tarma have scored four goals and let in six. They kept one clean sheet, failed to find the net in two matches and were involved in three-goal games twice, with both sides scoring in each of those encounters.

Moquegua’s recent outings are not listed in detail, so we cannot describe their last five results. The only concrete information we have is that they sit one place above Tarma, three points ahead, and that they have a 55 percent chance of scoring at least once in this game and a 20 percent chance of scoring twice. Their recent form therefore appears slightly better than Tarma’s, but the statistical outlook still favours the home side.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce a few goals, with both sides often finding the net. Given the recent scores in Tarma’s five-game run – two matches with three or more goals and both sides scoring in those – we can expect a similar pattern this time. Tarma’s ability to score at least once is high at 79 percent, while Moquegua’s chance to score is just over half. The numbers point to a match where Tarma are likely to get the first goal and keep the pressure on, while Moquegua may struggle to create many chances.

Our pick is a Tarma win. We see a 54 percent chance of this result, which matches the price of 1.66 and looks attractive. The reasoning is simple: Tarma are statistically the stronger side, they have a high likelihood of scoring, and they need the points to climb out of the relegation zone. For this to go wrong, Tarma would have to fail to score – a 21 percent possibility – or Moquegua would need to score twice, which only happens 20 percent of the time. If either of those low-probability events occurs, the result could flip, but the balance of evidence still points to a home victory.