How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made FC Cajamarca to win 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
FC Cajamarca host CD UT Cajamarca in a Peru Liga 1 clash on 28 October 2026. The home side sit 15th of 18 with 11 points from 13 games and a –9 goal difference. One place above them is Los Chankas with just a point to spare, while Club Deportivo Moquegua sit just below. CD UT Cajamarca are bottom of the table, 18th with –3 points and a –16 goal difference, ten points adrift of the safety-spot club Asociación Deportiva Tarma. Both teams are fighting to climb out of the relegation zone, so the stakes are high for each side.
FC Cajamarca have not been able to turn things around in their last five outings. They lost 4-2 away to Sport Boys, then fell 1-0 at home to Club Deportivo Moquegua. A goalless draw away at Asociación Deportiva Tarma followed, before another home defeat 2-1 to Cusco FC. The only win in that spell was a 2-1 away success over Los Chankas. In those five games they have scored five goals and let in eight, kept one clean sheet and failed to find the net twice. Three of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them. The side played just three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.
CD UT Cajamarca arrive on a run of five straight losses. Their most recent result was a 2-1 home defeat by FBC Melgar. Before that they lost 1-0 away to Cienciano, 1-0 at home to Sporting Cristal, 3-2 away to Sport Huancayo and 2-1 at home to ADC Juan Pablo II. In those five games they have managed four goals while conceding nine, and they have been shut out twice. Three of the fixtures saw three or more goals and both teams scored in three of them. Their last match was five days ago, giving them a slightly longer break than the hosts.
When the two Cajamarca clubs have met before, the games have tended to be open affairs with goals on both ends. The recent form of each side suggests a similar pattern could repeat – both teams have been involved in matches where three or more goals were scored and both have shown the ability to find the net even when losing. The expectation of about 3.4 goals in this encounter fits that picture, with FC Cajamarca averaging 2.2 goals and CD UT Cajamarca 1.2.
We pick FC Cajamarca to win. The numbers show them as the stronger side, and we estimate a roughly 59 % chance of success. The price on offer is 1.90, which is longer than our own reading of the game, so it looks attractive. For the pick to go wrong, CD UT Cajamarca would need to improve dramatically, scoring twice or more – something that has only happened in 28 % of their games – and keep a clean sheet, which has been rare for them. If they manage to hold FC Cajamarca to a single goal, the result could be tighter, but the balance still favours the home side.
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